Thales is an event-driven G10 FX strategy offered through Darwinex. The strategy focuses on market reactions following central-bank decisions and major economic releases. Event interpretation is expert-led, while execution, position management and risk are governed by a structured rules-based framework. Thales was recognized by The Hedge Fund Journal in 2022 and 2023 in its systematic currency strategy category.

Darwinex is an FCA and CNMV regulated brokerage and investment platform in the UK and Spain. Founded in 2012, Darwinex employs more than 60 across the London headquarters and a development office in Spain.

Aarnikotka Tutkimus Oy is a Finnish macro research company and trading-signal provider based in Jyväskylä. The firm develops the research, event interpretation and trading framework underlying Thales and provides trading signals to the strategy operated through Darwinex. Its research process has been developed through more than a decade of live event-driven macro trading.

The Thales strategy is only available on the Darwinex platform.

The Darwinex® brand and the https://www.darwinex.com domain are commercial names used by Tradeslide Trading Tech Limited, a company regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the United Kingdom with FRN 586466, with company registration number 08061368 and registered office in Acre House, 11-15 William Road, London NW1 3ER, UK. and by Sapiens Markets EU Sociedad de Valores SA, a company regulated by the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV) in Spain under the number 311, with CIF A10537348 and registered office in Calle de Recoletos, 19, Bajo, 28001 Madrid, Spain

You may access the invest option on the website after which you will be redirected to Darwinex account opening. After filling out the registration form, you will be contacted by a Darwinex employee to review the investment opportunity and steps necessary to invest in the strategy.

For more information on investing, please refer to thales@darwinex.com or darwinex.com.

Thales focuses on the repricing that follows important macroeconomic information. Before an event, we define the outcomes most likely to matter relative to market expectations. Once the information is released, we interpret the realized outcome and trade the subsequent price adjustment where we believe the information has not yet been fully incorporated.

The core universe consists of central-bank decisions and major economic releases across the G10, with selected unscheduled macro events such as currency interventions where we can prepare a framework in advance. Positions are initiated only after new information becomes available; Thales does not trade by predicting the headline outcome itself.

• United States Dollar (USD)
• Euro (EUR)
• Japanese Yen (JPY)
• British Pound Sterling (GBP)
• Swiss Franc (CHF
• Canadian Dollar (CAD)
• Australian Dollar (AUD)
• New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
• Swedish Krona (SEK)
• Norwegian Krone (NOK

The opportunity set varies with the macro regime, but typically around 6–12 events per month are sufficiently relevant to enter the trading process.

From a few minutes to a few hours, or in some cases a few days.

Risk is sized as a percentage of strategy NAV according to the quality and conviction of the predefined event scenario. Most individual events are allocated approximately 0.1–0.8% risk, with higher-conviction situations receiving larger allocations within the overall strategy risk framework.

The underlying inefficiency is imperfect and sometimes delayed interpretation of new macroeconomic information relative to market expectations. Depending on the event and the initial market reaction, this can create momentum, mispricing or mean-reversion opportunities. The key is interpreting the details of the release rather than reacting mechanically to the headline.

The historical archive is an integral part of scenario construction. It allows us to compare a current event with genuinely analogous historical situations, identify which details mattered previously and distinguish meaningful similarities from superficial ones. The archive has been built through live research over more than a decade and provides the historical context behind the scenario framework.

The interpretation layer is expert-led and discretionary: before an event we determine what information matters and define scenarios relative to market expectations, then classify the realized outcome as information arrives.
Execution and risk are much more systematic. Scenario conviction determines predefined risk parameters, while entry, stop, position-management and exit rules follow a structured framework.

This separation is deliberate: judgment is concentrated where interpretation matters most, while execution and risk-taking are constrained by predefined rules.

CFTC positioning data is one input we review when assessing market positioning, but futures positioning can provide an incomplete picture of G10 FX. We therefore consider it alongside other market information and institutional research where relevant.

Historical comparisons are used within a predefined event framework rather than selected after the outcome is known. Before major events we identify the relevant variables, expectations and possible scenarios, which reduces the ability to choose historical analogues purely because they fit a subsequent narrative. We also distinguish real-time classifications from later ex-post review.

Use the verified historical Darwinex track record and, where possible, link to current Darwinex performance statistics rather than hardcoding figures.

The strategy is offered at 6.5% VAR with 95% confidence. This means that only 1 in 20 months should we expect a return outside the -6.5% to +6.5% range.

The underlying strategy history dates back to 2015, providing more than a decade of live trading history.

Risk-adjusted performance has historically been strong, although these metrics vary materially by period and market regime. Current performance statistics are available through Darwinex.

Based on historical data, Thales has a historically low correlation to equity and bond markets, as well as to hedge indices (e.g.  SP500, AGG, ACWI, Barclay HF Index). You can see our comparative return performance here.

Historically, approximately 42% of traded events have been profitable. Individual-trade hit rates are lower because an event can contain multiple entries, including losing trades, while the overall event remains profitable.

Activity and P&L have historically been concentrated in the most liquid G10 currency pairs, reflecting both the opportunity set and the importance of execution quality around macro events.

Gaps through intended stop levels have historically been uncommon, but gap and liquidity risk are inherent around macro events and are incorporated into position sizing and event selection.

Position management is scenario-specific rather than based on a universal trailing-stop rule. Depending on the setup, the framework can include predefined stop adjustments, partial profit-taking and holding a residual position where the information continues to support the trade.

Scaling can be used as part of entry and exit management where the event structure and liquidity justify it, but it is not required for every position.

Yes. Central-bank events often unfold in stages. A statement can initially produce one interpretation before forecasts or the press conference materially change the information set. In those cases the scenario is updated and positions can be reduced, exited or reversed according to the new information.

We monitor execution costs and slippage around events and regularly review pricing and execution quality with Darwinex and its liquidity providers.

Yes. The relevance of individual releases and central banks changes materially with the macro regime. Fed and ECB decisions have remained consistently important, while the importance of individual economic releases and other G10 central banks has varied over time.

Potentially, provided the event is sufficiently market-relevant and can be interpreted within our framework. The core opportunity set consists of policy statements, forecasts and press conferences, together with major economic releases. Speeches and minutes are traded more selectively because their information content varies considerably.

Yes. The event universe is dynamic because market sensitivity changes with the policy and macro regime. We continuously reassess which events merit detailed preparation rather than assuming that historically important releases will remain equally relevant.

Yes, where there is enough context to prepare in advance. Japanese FX interventions are a good example: historical intervention episodes can help frame likely timing, magnitude and market behavior. These events are nevertheless a small part of the overall strategy.

Thales tends to benefit from environments in which macro information produces meaningful repricing, which often coincides with healthier FX volatility. However, the strategy is not mechanically long volatility and has also generated positive returns in lower-volatility regimes.

We do not attempt to forecast the short-term opportunity set. Over longer horizons, changes in inflation, growth, monetary-policy regimes and geopolitics continually alter which macro events matter most. The strategy is designed to adapt the event universe and scenario framework as those conditions change.